Day: July 20, 2019

(Xinhua)15:33, June 05, 2019

WASHINGTON, June 4 (Xinhua) — The World Bank on Tuesday lowered its global growth forecast for 2019 to 2.6 percent, citing growing trade tensions, among other factors, according to the newly released semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report.

Heightened policy uncertainty, including a recent re-escalation of trade tensions between major economies, has been accompanied by a deceleration in global investment and a decline in confidence, the report said.

Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2019 was downgraded to a weaker-than-expected 2.6 percent, 0.3 percentage point below a previous estimate in January, the report said. Global growth is projected to inch up to 2.7 percent in 2020.

World Bank President David Malpass told reporters in a teleconference that global growth has weakened since the January issue of the report, and momentum remains fragile.

The global economic outlook, in both the near- and long-term, is confronting substantial challenges, Malpass said, noting that downside risks to growth include rising trade barriers, a buildup of government debt, and deepening slowdowns in major economies.

Global trade growth in 2019, in particular, was revised down a full percentage point, to 2.6 percent, the weakest since the global financial crisis, the report said.

Ayhan Kose, director of the prospects group at the World Bank, said in the teleconference that if trade tensions escalate and much higher tariffs are put on a very large segment of global trade, it is very likely that we will see a deeper slowdown.

The slowdown will take place in major economies, will have a significant spillover through trade channels, through confidence channels, through commodity markets, Kose said, noting that the current 2.7 percent forecast for global growth in 2020 could be cut by a full percentage point to 1.7 percent if trade tensions worsen.

If there is an improvement in the trade disputes, it will help boost confidence, reduce uncertainty and put a floor on the slowdown, Kose said. This is a path that policymakers can take and can lead to a much better prospect for global economic growth.

In the report, growth among emerging market and developing economies is projected to fall to a four-year low of 4 percent in 2019, as a number of economies are coping with the impact of financial stress and political uncertainty. Growth is forecast to recover to 4.6 percent in 2020.

The World Bank maintained its growth projection for China this year at 6.2 percent, citing a deceleration in global trade, stable commodity prices, supportive global financial conditions, and the ability of authorities to calibrate supportive monetary and fiscal policies to address external challenges and other headwinds.

Growth among advanced economies, meanwhile, is anticipated to slow to 1.7 percent in 2019, with the euro area growth projected at 1.2 percent, the report said. The U.S. growth is forecast to ease to 2.5 percent this year, and decelerate to 1.7 percent in 2020.

Governments also need to make debt management and transparency a high priority so that new debt adds to growth and investment, Malpass said.

Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, World Bank vice president for equitable growth, finance and Institutions, said in a press release that while almost every economy faces headwinds, the poorest countries face the most daunting challenges because of fragility, geographic isolation, and entrenched poverty.

Unless they can get onto a faster growth trajectory, the goal of lowering extreme poverty under 3 percent by 2030 will remain unreachable, Pazarbasioglu said.

(Xinhua)16:42, June 05, 2019

NEW YORK, June 4 (Xinhua) — Are you interested in this instant pot cookbook with more than 100 recipes? A smiling Nancy Taylor kept asking passers-by to market her companys new publications at the annual BookExpo America held here.

The promotional giveaway attracted many to her booth — the Trusted Media Brands, Inc. (TMBI), where all publications on display featured coated paper and vibrant colors. According to Taylor, a sales representative of the company, almost every one of them was printed in China.

However, Taylor and her peers have started to worry about their businesses future, as books printed in and shipped from China may soon face steep additional tariffs up to 25 percent.

In an escalation of the trade tensions, Washington on May 10 increased additional tariffs on 200 billion U.S. dollars worth of Chinese imports from 10 percent to 25 percent, and has threatened to raise tariffs on more Chinese imports.

A public hearing will be held on June 17 to decide whether to hike tariffs on another 300 billion dollars of Chinese imports, which will include printed books.

Im horrified about it, said Taylor, frowning and shaking her head.

For American publishers, China has long been a reliable supplier, delivering high-quality books at a cost usually 30-40 percent lower than in the United States and Canada. This is especially the case with full-color, hardcover books of coated paper, multiple participants of this years BookExpo told Xinhua.

The BookExpo America gathers booksellers, librarians, specialty retailers and national chains, publishers and tastemakers to discover the latest titles, authors, distribution channels, technology and trends in New York, according to the expos official website, which said the 2019 expo took place on May 29-31.

With a history of 97 years, the TMBI owns many popular American magazines including Readers Digest. Having most of its publications printed in China helps the company to make prices more affordable and competitive while staying profitable.

We have a lot of expenses that go into manufacturing books … We have a distributor, we have a whole team that we have to pay for testing the recipes, and other art directors on the editorial, said Taylor. We really could use whatever help we can get with regards to the pricing.

For books that require more handiwork, Chinese printers are even more irreplaceable. Look at this one, Taylor pointed to a loose-leaf book on the shelf. We can never sell it at 12.99 dollars if printing it in the United States.

Some other publishers on the BookExpo shared similar comments. I know about the tariffs. We are … trying to figure out the effects and solutions, said Brendan Curry at the booth of W. W. Norton Company.

It took decades for China to grow into a leading player in the printing industry, said Zou Hong, general manager of Jinhao Color Printing based in southern Chinas Shenzhen City, who came to New York for this annual gala of global publishers.

In the booth of Jinhao, a whole variety of displayed products, from books to notebooks, were all order samples from U.S. businesses. Chinas printing industry has some advantages, such as a skilled labor force, an optimized industry chain and accumulated management expertise, Zou noted.

Taylor believes that if the tariffs are really in place, American readers may have to pay the price. While some bigger publishers may be able to withstand the tariffs impact, its gonna be difficult for some smaller publishers definitely, Taylor said.

(Xinhua)08:27, June 06, 2019

WASHINGTON, June 5 (Xinhua) — Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde warned in a blog post Wednesday of growing concerns over the impact of current trade tensions on global growth, urging the removal of existing trade barriers and restraint in erecting new ones.

In an article titled How to Help, Not Hinder Global Growth, Lagarde highlighted the current global trade tensions, which she said are looming larger.

Most importantly, there are growing concerns over the impact of the current trade tensions, the IMF chief said, adding that the most recent U.S.-China tariffs risk further reducing investment, productivity and growth.

The tariffs that the Trump administration recently threatened to impose on all Mexican imports are also of concern, she said.

Calling the negative impacts of those trade tensions on global growth self-inflicted wounds, Lagarde said they must be avoided by removing the recently implemented trade barriers and by avoiding further barriers in whatever form.

The IMF estimates that the increase from 10 percent to 25 percent in additional tariffs on 200 billion U.S. dollars worth of Chinese goods sold to the United States, coupled with envisaged tariffs of 25 percent on roughly 267 billion dollars as of May in Chinese products, could subtract about 0.3 percent from global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020, according to Lagarde.

The tariff hikes were announced by the Trump administration in May to unilaterally escalate the frictions in the midst of trade talks between Washington and Beijing.

The U.S.-China tariffs levied by and on each other in these two years could reduce global GDP by 0.5 percent in 2020, Lagarde said.

She added that the reduction amounts to a loss of about 455 billion dollars, which is larger than the size of South Africas economy.

Protectionist measures, while hurting growth and jobs, are also making tradable consumer goods less affordable and disproportionately harming low-income households, Lagarde said.

In addition to trade tensions, Lagarde also raised the question of whether an uptick in global growth that the IMF projected in its Aprils edition of the World Economic Outlook will happen as expected.

The managing director mentioned several significant stumbling blocks impeding the acceleration in global growth, including the uncertainty in continued growth in advanced economies following the first-quarter momentum, and the possibility of failure or delay of the materialization of previously anticipated improvements in stressed economies.

Furthermore, the effect of a possible no-deal Brexit and a perceived depression in economic activity as a result of the recent increase in oil prices are also cited by Lagarde as question marks over the expected uptick in growth.

Meanwhile, corporate debt levels as an example of underlying vulnerability of the global economy, and the disappointing mid-term growth prospects faced by many economies might also darken the growth picture, according to Lagarde.

As finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of 20 (G20) members are gathering this week in Fukuoka, Japan, Lagarde called on policymakers to work in partnership to help, not hinder the expected pickup in growth.

Specifically, the IMF chief suggested that the G20 mechanism resolve the current trade tensions and step up the modernization of the international trade system, so as to make it more open, more stable and more transparent.

She also called for achieving resilient and inclusive growth by calibrating balanced fiscal policies, addressing dislocations caused by trade and technological innovation, and engaging in structural reforms that, if comprehensively implemented, are expected to boost the G20 members GDP by 4 percent in the long term.

Last but not least, cross-border policy coordination is needed if growth falters, Lagarde said. Our downturn simulation shows that, if all countries act decisively to stimulate their own growth, the positive spillovers reinforce each other.

(Xinhua)09:20, June 06, 2019

BEIJING, June 5 (Xinhua) — China said Wednesday that it hopes the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the United States will meet each other half way, continue to act on their consensus and work for advancement toward a political settlement of the Korean Peninsula issue.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang made the remarks at a press briefing when responding to a question about a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the DPRK saying in a statement that the United States has intentionally avoided from implementing the DPRK-U.S. joint statement reached in Singapore and only insisted on the DPRKs unilateral surrender of nuclear weapons.

Geng said the joint statement, released after the two countries leaders held a historic meeting in Singapore in June last year, brought the Peninsula issue back onto the right track of dialogue and consultation.

Noting that the Peninsula peace talks are at a critical stage, Geng said China hopes that the DPRK and the U.S. will firm confidence, keep patience, and show flexibility.

They need to meet each other half way, continue to implement their consensus, accommodate each others legitimate concerns and work for progress for a political settlement of the Peninsula issue, Geng said.

China will continue to work with the rest of the international community to make positive efforts for this end, Geng said.

(Xinhua)15:50, June 06, 2019

WASHINGTON, June 5 (Xinhua) –US President Donald Trump said Wednesday that the progress which has been made in US-Mexico talks on tariffs and immigration is not enough, renewing his threat to impose a 5-percent tariff on all imported Mexican goods next week.

Immigration discussions at the White House with representatives of Mexico have ended for the day. Progress is being made, but not nearly enough! Trump tweeted Wednesday afternoon, noting that talks would resume Thursday.

If no agreement is reached, tariffs at the 5% level will begin on Monday, with monthly increases as per schedule, the president said.

US Vice President Mike Pence hosted the meeting in his office with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, acting Secretary of the US Department of Homeland Security Kevin McAleenan, Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard and other senior US and Mexican officials.

Ebrard told reporters that the conversation during Wednesdays meeting focused on immigration, while tariffs were not discussed, CNBC reported.

According to official figures released Wednesday, US law enforcement officials apprehended more than 130,000 people trying to cross the southern border illegally in May, hitting a 13-year high for the month.

The statistics, usually announced in the second week of each month, were released before the Wednesday meeting, as the US government is pressuring Mexico to curb the flow of immigrants, many of whom originated from central American countries.

In an interview with CNN prior to the talks, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said the threatened tariffs against Mexican goods may not have to go into effect if the country can take necessary measures to halt undocumented migrants crossing the southern US border.

Trump said last week that he would impose a 5-percent tariff on all imported Mexican goods beginning June 10 so as to pressure the country to stop the flow of undocumented migrants crossing the border, and will gradually increase tariffs until the problem is remedied, drawing extensive criticism both domestically and abroad.

If the Congress lets Trump get away with this, he will be free to slap tariffs on any country or any product at any time for whatever reason he dreams up, Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said in a blog post, adding that the presidents decision to link trade to immigration and refugee concerns is an especially dangerous escalation.